Stars of the Turf

Standings Soon

2008-05-02T14:39:00.001-04:00

Just wanted to let everyone know I'll start posting standings sometime in the next few weeks as more of the horses get to race.

Two More Picks

2008-04-09T07:06:00.003-04:00

Two more picks for me:

One is the Langfuhr-Coral Sea colt who was just sold. (Tier C)

The other is Man of Iron, the Giant's Causeway-Better Than Honor colt. (Tier A)

Two more workouts

2008-03-23T11:10:00.001-04:00

Arabian Peace and Closing Prayer (both of Winterwood Stables) both worked out on Friday.

Royal Captive

2008-03-21T07:15:00.001-04:00

My twelfth pick, and first Tier D - Royal Captive, colt by Royal Academy out of Captive Island.

First Entry - Cat Dreamer

2008-03-20T15:37:00.003-04:00

Cat Dreamer from Turn of Foot Stables is entered in a two furlong California Bred MSW tomorrow.

I doubt I'll be able to keep up with updates on all the notifications, so if each of you wants to periodically send me updates I'd be happy to post them...or just include them in the comments section for your stable or a recent post, and anyone who is interested can look there.

First Workout - Flashy Flyer

2008-03-20T15:33:00.002-04:00

I've got everyone's picks in my Equibase Virtual Stable, and the first workout notification just arrived! Flashy Flyer from Turn of Foot stables worked three furlongs in 40.60 (breezing) at El Primero Training Center. I was going to make fun of how slow the work was, until I noticed that it was the fastest of seven at that distance!

The "Lindsay Rules"

2008-03-18T13:44:00.000-04:00

Two new rules based on questions that Lindsay asked:

1. If the sire is deceased, use the fee from his final year at stud.

2. If you can't find a stud fee published for the sire, then his offspring count as "Tier A", even if the fee would obviously be lower.

Four More Picks

2008-03-18T09:28:00.004-04:00

Here are my next four picks. This should bring my total to eleven so far (3 Tier A, 3 Tier B, 1 Tier C, 3 Tier E, 1 Tier F).

Sweet Thoughts - filly by AP Indy out of Sweet Catomine
Courageous Cat - colt by Storm Cat out of Tranquility Lake
Chiluki's Song - filly by Elusive Quality out of Chiluki
Striking Example - filly by Empire Maker out of Sightseek

As you can see...I like mares who were successful on the track themselves. I'm especially excited about Courageous Cat...full brother to After Market and Jalil.

Inexpensive Sires

2008-03-17T11:20:00.003-04:00

I'm going to be using a pretty simple formula for my Tier F picks. I'm looking for inexpensive sires who were in the top 100-150 sires of at least two of the past three years. Then selecting their offspring by stakes winning mares. I realize that there are at least three problems with this approach:
1. Most of the cheap sires who made the top 100 are in states with generous state-bred races, which inflates their apparent success as sires.
2. Most of the stakes winning mares they're bred to actually only won restricted stakes.
3. The apparent 'consistency' exhibited by these sires over 2 or 3 years may be an illusion that's a result of the fact that the same offspring are still running for several years.

Moving on to my first Tier F pick - Leopard Strike, a colt by Tactical Cat out of Noble Strike. At least his grandsires (Storm Cat and Smart Strike) aren't bad!

Also going to mention another rules clarification here - if a selected horse turns out to have died prior to being picked, an alternative pick will be allowed. I've already had three near misses with this as I researched the 2006 foals of Personal Ensign, Inside Information, and My Flag.

British Banker

2008-03-15T06:22:00.004-04:00

My sixth pick (and first Tier C pick) is British Banker, a colt by Touch Gold out of Collect the Cash.

I'm fairly certain that I'll be one of the least pedigree savvy people entering Stars of the Turf. Usually when I enter a fantasy sports contest of any sort, I'm pretty obsessive about learning everything I can. I create spreadsheets, test correlations between various factors, read all the existing literature I can find, and test the more popular theories about how to predict performance. But pedigree analysis (which is what I consider this contest to be about) is such a complex topic, with so much, that I'm not going to be able to take things that seriously this year.

In the meantime, I'm going to be using common sense mixed with a few general statistical principles that generally yield good results in any type of 'forecasting' to come up a basic approach to my picks. Here are my thoughts so far:

1. In the case of selecting sires, there's a large enough sample size of their offspring that I'm going to look directly at the performance of their children. At the higher stud fees, there's no reason to go with an unproven sire.

2. In the case of selecting dams, sample size is a major issue. Even in a case like Better than Honour or Personal Ensign, where more than 50% of their children have been major stakes winners, this is an issue. Think about it for a minute...has there ever been a sire with 50% stakes winning offspring? Do we really believe that the influence of the dam is THAT much more than the sire? These have to be statistical flukes...which is fairly typical of what happens with small sample sizes. Obviously these are likely to be very successful dams, but I don't think we can expect Better than Honour to continue to give birth to a steady string of stakes winners, just because she has so far.

3. Although racing records of most horses are an equally small sample size, there is a lot less variance in the data, so they're more reliable. While Better than Honour's next foal may be a $5K claimer, it's very unlikely that when healthy Rags to Riches would ever lose a race to a $5K claimer. So even though what we're really interested in is their ability to give birth to top performers, I think we can best predict that indirectly, by evaluating mares primarily on their racing record.

Basically that's my approach - pick horses by a sire with a proven record at stud out of a mare who was successful on the track.

Now it's time to start learning how things really work.

Silverbulletfolly

2008-03-14T23:35:00.003-04:00

My 5th pick (and 3rd Tier B pick) is a filly by Vindication out of Silverbulletday called Silverbulletfolly.

I'm guessing I'm one of the less knowledgeable people who will play this game, so until I have time to really dive into the research I'm focusing on children of somewhat proven sires and top race mares.

Littleprincessemma

2008-03-14T12:03:00.003-04:00

With my fourth pick (and third Tier E pick) my SOTT Stables is picking Littleprincessemma, a filly by Yankee Gentleman out of Exclusive Rosette. She was purchased by Zayat for $250K at auction last year, so hopefully I'll be able to get some info on her from one of the blogs where Justin Zayat comments from time to time.

Yardstick Stables

2008-03-13T22:25:00.003-04:00

We have our first complete stable selected - Yardstick Stables has made all their picks...you can see who they've selected in the comments below the post called 'First Pick'. Remember that each horse can only be selected by one stable.

I will be putting a spreadsheet together with everyone's picks. If you want to be periodically sent a copy of it, send me an email to let me know.

Sidney Road

2008-03-13T17:56:00.000-04:00

Thanks to commenter "Mr. Freeze" I now know that my first pick (colt by Repent out of One To Five) is named Sidney Road. The other two appear to be unnamed so far, but I did learn that the filly by Repent out of Alphabulous has a full brother named Big Al who came in 3rd in a minor turf stakes races at Calder last fall. In case its not completely obvious already, I've been following horse racing for a long time (since just before Affirmed won the Kentucky Derby), but have only become interested in the breeding end of the sport VERY recently...so I'm still learning where to get the information I need.

Now I'm just looking forward to some of you starting to make some picks for your stables. One horse I'm sure won't be available for long is Nicanor (Barbaro's full brother)...

Repent

2008-03-13T12:53:00.000-04:00

Part of my motivation for creating Stars of the Turf was to allow people to put their "money" where their mouths are regarding which sires are bargains, even if they have no money. One sire that is clearly going to see a major upgrade in stud fee at some time soon is Repent (sire of Atoned, Crown of Thorns, and Check it Twice). My SOTT Stable will pick its 3rd horse for the contest, and 2nd child of repent:

Filly by Repent out of Alphabulous.

That's my 2nd 'Tier E' pick. Now I just have to figure out how to find out when these horses are named, whether they're in training, and whether they're even still alive!

Links & Resources

2008-03-13T07:20:00.000-04:00

Over time I'd like to build out the link list on the right side of the page to include many useful resources for those playing Stars of the Turf. If you have suggestions about what sites to link to, please let me know.

One specific question I have for anyone reading this - can you recommend any easy way to determine when a horse gets named? For example, I don't actually know for sure that the two horses I've picked in the contest haven't been named yet. What would be the easiest way to check?

If you plan to play in the Stars of the Turf, but haven't finished your research yet, remember that you don't have to make all your picks at once. You can go to The Bloodhorse browse the information on 2 year old auctions in 2008 or yearling auctions in 2007, and if you see a horse you like, come back here and get started by making your first pick.

Second Pick

2008-03-12T14:18:00.000-04:00

Here's the 2nd pick for SOTT Stables...

Unnamed filly by Elusive Quality out of Xtra Heat.

That's my 1st 'Tier B' pick.

Just 28 more picks to go...

First Pick

2008-03-12T07:06:00.000-04:00

The rest of you will be making your picks in the comments section, but I'll do mine here (at least for now).

The first pick in the contest is...

SOTT Stables (that's me)
Unnamed colt by Repent out of One To Five

My first 'Tier E' ($5k to $9k) pick.
Recently purchased at OBS sale by Padua.

Rules Clarification

2008-03-12T05:57:00.000-04:00

I'm going to add this to the posted rules: Only one stable may select each horse. First come, first served. This is to encourage each entrant to do their own research and to encourage people to pick their favorites early, rather than waiting until they're entered in a race.

Welcome

2008-03-11T16:47:00.000-04:00

This contest and blog are both obviously works in progress, so definitely let me know if you have any ideas how I can make them better! I've got lots of ideas of my own, but it's going to take some time to put them all in place.

In the meantime, start thinking about your picks for the contest. Also, check out Turn of Foot, which was the final (and best) piece of inspiration for me to put this together.

Rules

2008-03-11T14:25:00.000-04:00

Overview: 'Stars of the Turf' is very simple and is free to enter. Each player (or 'stable')will choose a 'crop' of 30 unraced 2 year old horses. As those horses compete in races, they will earn points for the stable, based on their results. Each year, each stable will select a new 'crop' of 30 unraced horses, but we'll also continue to follow the performance of their crops from previous years.

Selecting Your 'Crop': All selections should be made in comments section of this blog. You can pick your stable all at once, or individually as you find horses you want. Once you make a selection, it is final. Any unraced two year old that isn't already part of someone else's stable may be selected. When you make your selections, please indicate your stable name, the name of the horse you are selecting, the parents of the horse, and the stud fee of the sire. You may select up to 5 horses from each of the following tiers:

Tier A: 5 horses whose sires stand for $100K+ USD
Tier B: 5 horses whose sires stand for $50K-$99K USD
Tier C: 5 horses whose sires stand for $20K-$49K USD
Tier D: 5 horses whose sires stand for $10K-$19K USD
Tier E: 5 horses whose sires stand for $5K-$9K USD
Tier F: 5 horses whose sires stand for <$5K USD

If USD stud fees are not listed for a horse, currency conversion rates should be based on 1/1/08 exchange rate.

Scoring points: Races will fall into 5 categories - Classic Races, Grade I Races, Grade II Races, Grade III Races, and All Other Races. Points will be scored as follows:

Classic Races-
1st Place-60
2nd Place-30
3rd Place-15

Grade I Races-
1st Place-40
2nd Place-20
3rd Place-10

Grade II Races-
1st Place-24
2nd Place-12
3rd Place-6

Grade III Races-
1st Place-16
2nd Place-8
3rd Place-4

All Other Races (only those in US, Canada, UK, Ireland, and France count)-
1st Place-4
2nd Place-2
3rd Place-1

Classic Races: The full list of 'Classic Races' is-
Dubai World Cup
Dubai Golden Shaheen
Dubai Sheema Classic
Dubai Duty Free
English 2,000 Guineas
Kentucky Derby
English 1,000 Guineas
Poule d’Essai des Poulains
Poule d’Essai des Pouliches
Irish 2,000 Guineas
Irish 1,000 Guineas
Preakness
Prix du Jockey Club
Coronation Cup
Belmont Stakes
English Oaks
Epsom Derby
Queen Anne Stakes
St James’s Palace Stakes
Prince Of Wales’s Stakes
Gold Cup
Irish Derby
Eclipse Stakes
July Cup
Irish Oaks
King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes
Sussex Stakes
Travers Stakes
Prix Jacques Le Marois
International Stakes
Yorkshire Oaks
Irish Champion Stakes
Prix du Moulin de Longchamp
English St Leger
Jockey Club Gold Cup
Queen Elizabeth II Stakes
Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe
Champion Stakes, Newmarket
Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf
Breeders’ Cup Classic
Breeders’ Cup Mile
Breeders’ Cup Turf
Breeders' Cup Juvenile
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies
Breeders' Cup Distaff
Breeders' Cup Turf Distaff
Melbourne Cup
Japan Cup
Hong Kong Cup
Hong Kong Mile

Since I'm going to be doing all of this manually, I can't guarantee how often I'll be updating everyone's scores. Depending how many people enter, I'm thinking I'll try to do it every three months. In the meantime, I assume that there should be some lively discussion about the progress of everyone's stables in the comments on the blog.

Winterwood Stables

2008-03-01T12:36:00.000-05:00

Winterwood Stables Picks:

*** Coming Soon ***

Turn of Foot Stables

2008-03-01T12:35:00.004-05:00

Turn of Foot Stables Picks:

Tier A:
1.Burgee(USA)
colt - Awesome Again x Gold Streamer ($150k)
2.Rotterdam (USA)
colt - Unbridled's Song x Zoftig ($150k)
3.Secret Wish (USA)
filly - Street Cry x Awesome Lass ($100k)
4.Sunspear (IRE)
filly - Montjeu x Out West (EUR 125k)
5.unnamed (USA)
colt - Storm Cat x Paiota Falls ($300k)

Tier B:
1.Ermine Slippers (USA)
filly - El Prado x Sweet As Honey ($75k)
2.Early Morning Rain (IRE)
filly - Rock Of Gibraltar x Honorine (EUR 35k = $54k)
3.unnamed (USA)
filly - Mineshaft x Wildwood Flower ($75k)
4.unnamed (USA)
colt - Mineshaft x Whitewater ($75k)
5.Seiun Knowledge(USA)
colt - Vindication x Dossier (60k)

Tier C:
1.Captain Captivated (USA)
filly - El Corredor x Captivated ($30k)
2.Barnstorming (USA)
colt - Thunder Gulch x Soul Of The Cat ($20k)
3.Race The Breeze (CAN)
filly - Theatrical x Wedding Day Blues ($40k)
4.unnamed (USA)
colt - Medaglia d'Oro x Mizzen Lass ($40k)
5.unnamed (USA)
filly - Lion Heart x New Jersey ($20k)

Tier D:
1.Flashy Flyer (USA)
filly - Valid Expectations x Wood Duck ($17.5k)
2.Legendary Peace (USA)
filly - Peace Rules x Red Mischief ($12.5k)
3.unnamed (USA)
colt - Five Star Day x Adventure ($15k)
4.Flat Water (USA)
colt - Stephen Got Even x Zirke Falls ($12.5k)
5.unnamed (USA)
colt - Kafwain x Unaltered ($10k)

Tier E:
1.Rightly So (USA)
filly - Read The Footnotes x Fit Right In ($8.5k)
2. Man Of Faith (USA)
colt - Essence Of Dubai x River Of Faith ($5k)
3.Bear Canyon (USA)
filly - Champali x Miss Vesuvio ($7.5k)
4.Oscar's Nominee (USA)
filly - Marino Marini x Theatrical Doll ($5k)
5.Hickory Nut (USA)
colt - Horse Chestnut x Masked Ball ($5k)

Tier F:
1.Ancient Future (USA)
filly - Cat Dreams x Ma Guerre ($4k)
2.Certainly You (USA)
filly - Certain Storm x Had To Be You ($2.5k)
3.Marleau
colt - Cat Dreams x Ascalon ($4k)
4.Storm's Ransom (USA)
colt - Certain Storm x Cushina ($2.5k)
5.Cat Dreamer
colt -Cat Dreams x Aunt Polly ($4k)

Yardstick Stables

2008-03-01T12:35:00.002-05:00

Yardstick Stables Picks:

Tier A
Dr. Smarty Jack
Smarty Jones x Hoh Buzzard
$100,000

Hysterigirl
Distorted Humor x Alizea’s Song
$300,000

Song of Solomon
Unbridled’s Song x Regal Miss Copelan
$150,000

Schramsberg
Storm Cat x Serena’s Song
$300,000

Indy’s Spell
A.P. Indy x Charm
$300,000

Tier B
Unnamed colt
More Than Ready x Victory Trick
$60,000

Shafted
Mineshaft x Twist Afleet
$75,000

Wild Poppy
El Prado x Flanders
$75,000

Answer
Pulpit x Chateaubaby
$80,000

Retool
Gone West x La Rosa
$85,000

Tier C
Jazzandthemagician
Birdstone x Pat Hand
$40,000

Danger to Society
Harlan’s Holiday x Elrose
$25,000

Icyberg
Stormy Atlantic x Frosty Promise
$30,000

Hodgkin
Fusaichi Pegasus x Groovy Feeling
$45,000

Maxwell’s Demon
Speightstown x Indy Pendnce
$40,000

Tier D
Lunar Fleet
Northern Afleet x Luna De Miel
$10,000

Poltergeist
Tapit x I’m Relaunchable
$12,500

Sobhy
Friends Lake x Another Vegetarian
$15,000

Loch Dubh
Friends Lake x Star Landing
$15,000

Devil Wears Prado
Devil His Due x Prado’s Mystique
$10,000

Tier E
Jacques Sparrow
Ten Most Wanted x Paris Sky
$7500

Man o’ Wonder
Teton Forest x Glister Girl
$5000

Unnamed colt
Honour and Glory x Singing Breeze
$7500

Narrative
Horse Chestnut x Rhetorical Lass
$5,000

Forward Motion
During x Lost Wolf
$5,000

Tier F
Elvis Rocks
Scrimshaw x Painting the Town
$3500

Blue Suede Hooves
Mud Route x Gypsy Soul
$2500

Scrimshank
Scrimshaw x Dyna Flow Miss
$3500

Run Richie Run
Albert the Great x Hansel’s Annie Gal
$4,000

Blade Martin
Sweetsouthernsaint x Lavender Girl
$3500

SOTT Stables

2008-03-01T12:33:00.001-05:00

Stars of the Turf (SOTT) Stables Picks:

*** Coming Soon ***